How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing 28 percentage points over seven days from 90¢ to 62¢, suggesting either new information about SpaceX's launch cadence or resolution criteria clarification.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing 28 percentage points over seven days from 90¢ to 62¢, suggesting either new information about SpaceX's launch cadence or resolution criteria clarification. With only 15 days until expiry and extreme realized volatility of 648%, the No side offers a striking 4,106% annualized yield despite the 65% Yes price, indicating substantial tail risk premium as the market approaches its April 2026 resolution date. The 1.86 volatility ratio and elevated information arrival rate of 2.1/hour suggest active repricing continues, though modest $15k daily volume and tight 3¢ spread indicate reasonable liquidity for a near-term binary event.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If SpaceX has more than 10 launches in Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSPACEXCOUNT-26APR-10 yes 100