Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?

The Yes position shows an extreme 406% implied yield despite minimal 24-hour volume of just $15, suggesting this deeply illiquid market may not reflect genuine consensus on Democratic prospects in traditionally Republican Kansas. The massive 518% realized volatility and 2.63 vol ratio indicate wild price swings on thin trading, with the 4¢ spread representing substantial friction relative to the 31¢ midpoint. With nearly $17.5M in open interest but negligible daily activity, this appears to be a legacy position from earlier market activity rather than an actively traded contract, making the current 31% price potentially unreliable for forecasting purposes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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