Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

The 3% price reflects extremely low conviction that OpenAI will achieve the highest IPO market cap in 2026, despite the astronomical 4562.6% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution—a stark asymmetry suggesting either severe underpricing or near-zero probability assessment by the market. With only $3,970 in 24-hour volume against $24.5k open interest and 259 days to expiry, liquidity is thin and the cliff risk index of 32 indicates meaningful tail risk, likely concentrated around whether OpenAI actually IPOs in the resolution window. The resolution criteria's dependency on multiple IPOs occurring in 2026 and OpenAI specifically having the largest debut market cap creates compounding uncertainty that the market appears to be pricing as prohibitively unlikely.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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