Will Andrew Zylberfink be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $326k, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 61¢ bid-ask spread indicating very few active traders. The 35¢ price has surged 52% over seven days (from 23¢), yet the astronomical realized volatility of 2584% and implied yield of 499% on the yes side suggest price discovery is unreliable rather than reflecting genuine conviction about Zylberfink's nomination chances. With 136 days to the September 1, 2026 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of just 2, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than a liquid betting mechanism.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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