Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?

59¢

Bid/Ask 51/67¢·Spread 16¢·Vol $0·OI $9,596.189·Closes Jun 9, 2026·51d remaining

0xfbe834154a7b7d8ec4ccd0f5468b58a113bdbf0e7c0a41876ae8b014ab94631b

7-day price431 snapshots · 7 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Robert Charles is priced at 59¢ on Polymarket versus 51¢ on Kalshi, representing an 8-cent cross-venue gap that suggests potential arbitrage opportunity favoring the No side. The market shows extreme volatility (532% realized, 2.56 vol ratio) with minimal liquidity ($9,239 open interest, zero 24-hour volume) and a wide 18-cent spread, indicating thin order books and high execution risk. With 51 days to expiry and an unusually elevated info arrival rate of 2.2 news items per hour, this market appears to be pricing in significant upcoming developments in Maine's Republican primary race.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 51¢(Δ +8¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 176.8%Close-time delta 3543h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.7%

IY (No) 1034.9%

Adj IY 737%

CRI 1

RV 551%

VR 2.61

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1034.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	737%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	551%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.61	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.29	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

16¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:05:42 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:19 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xfbe834154a7b7d8ec4ccd0f5468b58a113bdbf0e7c0a41876ae8b014ab94631b yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →