Metz vs Paris Winner?

This market shows extreme pricing distortion with Paris priced at 99¢ despite a neutral regime and only 14 days to expiry, implying Paris has a 99% win probability in what appears to be a standard Ligue 1 matchup. The No side offers a staggering 13,765% implied yield, suggesting either severe mispricing or that the market has already resolved with delayed settlement, particularly given the 1,446% realized volatility and the price's dramatic 95¢ movement from 4¢ over seven days. With $208,942 in 24-hour volume against only $128,916 open interest and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this exhibits classic characteristics of a post-event market where informed traders are arbitraging residual positions rather than a genuine pre-game prediction market.

Resolution rules

If Paris wins the Metz vs Paris professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 19, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade