Will Andy Levin be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 3054% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 37.7% on the No side, suggesting traders view Levin as a significant long-shot underdog despite the 10¢ price. The extremely high realized volatility of 1334% and cliff risk index of 9 indicate this market has experienced dramatic price swings, likely driven by sporadic political developments in Michigan's 11th district race. With only 108 days until the August 4, 2026 primary and modest 24-hour volume of $23.58, liquidity is thin relative to the $16.4M open interest, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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