Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 27¢ reflects a heavily Republican-favored district, with the No side offering a more modest 68.1% implied yield compared to the extreme 497.6% yield on the Yes side, indicating asymmetric risk pricing. Despite modest 24h volume of $100, the market maintains healthy open interest of $14.6M with a tight 3¢ spread, suggesting reasonable liquidity for a race nearly two years out. The 3-point price rise over seven days (24¢ to 27¢) and neutral regime score suggest the market is gradually repricing toward Democratic chances, though the cliff risk index of 3 warrants monitoring for potential volatility as the November 2026 election approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade