Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

AOC's 6¢ price reflects minimal market conviction in a 2028 presidential bid, with the 613% implied yield on "Yes" shares indicating extreme asymmetry typical of long-shot political bets. The $349k open interest against just $4.9k daily volume suggests this is a low-liquidity novelty market where the spread compression to 0¢ may not reflect true two-sided depth. The extraordinary 1108% realized volatility and 5.22 vol ratio signal sharp intraday swings despite the flat 7-day price action, pointing to thin order books where small trades can move the quote significantly.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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