Spain snap election called in 2026?

The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, declining 29% over seven days to 22¢, suggesting reduced expectations for a Spanish snap election despite the 500% implied yield on "Yes" positions indicating substantial tail risk. With only $893.71 in 24-hour volume against $14.7M open interest and a 3¢ spread, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential execution challenges for larger traders. The elevated realized volatility (400%) and cliff risk index of 4 suggest this market remains sensitive to political developments in Spain, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional catalyst is currently driving prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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