Will Manel Kape be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

17¢

Bid/Ask 1/33¢·Spread 33¢·Vol $0·OI $212.073·Closes Dec 31, 2026·256d remaining

0x7641183562e11eafc2104317d320903e366dbbc72365dba1b642178b606b7e8e

7-day price865 snapshots · 3 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The 17¢ Polymarket price implies a 17% probability for Kape, but this market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility concerns—zero 24-hour volume despite $212k open interest and a massive 33¢ bid-ask spread that dwarfs the price itself. A significant cross-venue arbitrage gap exists with Kalshi pricing the same outcome at 8¢, suggesting either mispricing on Polymarket or data quality issues, while the astronomical 697% implied yield and 8955% realized volatility indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 8¢(Δ +9¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.95IY 1637.4%Close-time delta 17h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 697.1%

IY (No) 29.2%

Adj IY 697%

CRI 5

RV 8955%

VR 51.62

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	697.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	29.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	697%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	8955%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	51.62	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

33¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:27:28 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 8:23:32 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x7641183562e11eafc2104317d320903e366dbbc72365dba1b642178b606b7e8e yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →