Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026?

This market shows a stark 31-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing Manel Kape's title retention at just 9% versus Polymarket's 40%, suggesting significant disagreement on his championship durability over the next 256 days. The extreme 1440% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and modest $6,418 open interest indicates this is an illiquid, speculative position where the low price may reflect both genuine uncertainty and thin order books rather than informed consensus. The 2104% realized volatility and high cliff risk (10/10) underscore the binary nature of title fights, making this a high-risk proposition despite the attractive odds.

Resolution rules

If Manel Kape holds the UFC Flyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade