Who will win Vezina Trophy?

4¢

Bid/Ask 5/22¢·Spread 17¢·Vol $0·OI $9,273.41·Closes Jun 30, 2026·72d remaining

KXNHLVEZINA-26-LTHO

7-day price13 snapshots · 11 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This illiquid market on Logan Thompson winning the Vezina Trophy shows a 21¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume despite $9,273 open interest, suggesting trapped capital and potential pricing inefficiency. The 4¢ Kalshi price trades 1¢ below the 5¢ Polymarket quote, creating a modest arbitrage opportunity, though the extreme 16,404% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine expected value. With 72 days to expiry and a moderate 32 Cliff Risk Index, this market appears underpriced relative to cross-venue benchmarks, but the lack of trading activity makes execution risky.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 5¢(Δ -1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.95IY 9725.6%Close-time delta 14h

Resolution rules

If Logan Thompson wins the NHL Vezina Trophy in the 2025-26 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12185.3%

IY (No) 21.2%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

Overround 0.4%

LAS 5.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	12185.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	21.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	5.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

17¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 4:52:56 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 4:38:14 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLVEZINA-26-LTHO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →