Will Bill Cassidy vote for a motion to invoke cloture on the SAVE America Act?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6¢ price generating a nonsensical 46,426% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential technical distortion rather than genuine probability assessment. The 7-day collapse from 21¢ to 6¢ combined with minimal 24-hour volume ($74.08) and modest open interest ($4,242.12) indicates low conviction and thin order books, making the current price unreliable as a probability estimate. With 12 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, this market carries substantial execution risk and should be treated cautiously until either liquidity improves or clearer legislative signals emerge on the SAVE America Act's Senate timeline.

Resolution rules

If Bill Cassidy votes for a motion to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to or passage of the SAVE America Act in the Senate before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade