Will Dan Wilson win AL MOTY?

7¢

Bid/Ask 7/14¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $2,085·Closes Dec 8, 2026·233d remaining

KXMLBALMOTY-26-DWIL

7-day price27 snapshots · 8 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Dan Wilson's AL Manager of the Year contract has collapsed from 10¢ to 7¢ over the past week, now pricing him at just a 7% win probability with minimal liquidity ($2,085 open interest and zero 24-hour volume). The extreme 2078% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe illiquidity and tight spread rather than genuine edge, suggesting this market lacks sufficient trading activity to be reliable for prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

If Dan Wilson wins the Pro Baseball American League Manager of the Year in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2078.0%

IY (No) 11.8%

Adj IY 1039%

CRI 13

Overround -0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2078.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1039%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:24:13 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 6:23:30 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBALMOTY-26-DWIL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →