Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026?

27¢

Bid/Ask 23/31¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $25,733·Closes May 26, 2026·37d remaining

KXTXRUNOFFENDORSE-26MAY26-DJT-JCOR

7-day price13 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing in a 27% probability of Trump endorsing Cornyn, with an extremely elevated Yes-side implied yield of 3,274% reflecting the binary nature and short 37-day timeframe to resolution. Zero 24-hour volume combined with an 8¢ spread suggests thin liquidity despite $25,733 open interest, making this market potentially illiquid for larger positions. The recent price movement from 21¢ to 23¢ over seven days indicates modest upward pressure on endorsement odds, though the neutral regime score (0.409) suggests no clear directional conviction in the market.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump publicly endorses John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3274.5%

IY (No) 292.2%

Adj IY 1637%

CRI 3

Overround 1.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3274.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	292.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1637%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:30:30 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 6:23:30 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTXRUNOFFENDORSE-26MAY26-DJT-JCOR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →