Will Jeff Colyer be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas?

The 43¢ price on Kalshi sits 5 cents above the Polymarket equivalent (38¢), suggesting either Kalshi-specific liquidity dynamics or divergent trader sentiment across venues—worth monitoring for arbitrage opportunities as the market matures. Realized volatility of 843% paired with an extremely high implied yield of 275% on the Yes side indicates substantial uncertainty around Colyer's nomination prospects, though the modest $2,882.78 open interest and $139 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. With 199 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market appears to be in early price discovery, making the cross-venue gap particularly noteworthy for directional conviction.

Resolution rules

If Jeff Colyer wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Kansas Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

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