Will John James be the Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan?

40¢

Bid/Ask 35/39¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $658.07·OI $15,730.08·Closes Nov 3, 2026·199d remaining

KXGOVMINOMR-26-JJ

7-day price77 snapshots · 7 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

John James's Republican gubernatorial nomination odds are trading at a notable 5¢ premium on Kalshi (40¢) versus Polymarket (35¢), suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or venue-specific liquidity differences. The Yes position shows an extreme 355.6% implied yield with thin $658 daily volume and $15.7k open interest, indicating low liquidity that could amplify price swings—indeed, the contract has already declined 7¢ over seven days amid 544% realized volatility. With nearly 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in genuine uncertainty around the 2026 Michigan Republican primary field, though the cross-venue gap warrants caution for large position sizing.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 35¢(Δ +5¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 630.0%Close-time delta 2199h

Resolution rules

If John James wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Michigan Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 355.6%

IY (No) 94.4%

Adj IY 293%

CRI 2

RV 544%

VR 2.91

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	355.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	94.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	293%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	544%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.91	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.18	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 9:46:54 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 9:38:21 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVMINOMR-26-JJ yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →