Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50?

4¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $5,384.87·OI $1,230,072.96·Closes Jan 7, 2027·263d remaining

KXSURVIVOR-26DEC31-JON

7-day price13 snapshots · 117 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Jonathan Young is priced at a severe discount (5¢) with an extraordinary 3318% implied yield on Yes contracts, suggesting either deep skepticism about his winning chances or potential mispricing given the substantial $1.23M open interest. The 7-day price movement from 2¢ to 4¢ indicates recent accumulation of bullish positions, though the tight 1¢ spread and modest $14.8K daily volume raise liquidity concerns for larger traders. With 264 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the high cliff risk index (24) warrants caution—this contract appears to be a speculative long-shot bet rather than a liquid, efficiently-priced market.

Resolution rules

If Jonathan Young is officially declared the winner of Survivor Season 50 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3326.3%

IY (No) 5.8%

Adj IY 1247%

CRI 24

Overround -0.0%

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3326.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1247%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.386

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:29:57 AM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 6:23:30 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSURVIVOR-26DEC31-JON yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →