Will Jordan Leasure win AL Reliever of the Year?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/7¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Dec 8, 2026·233d remaining

KXMLBALRELOTY-26-JLEA

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 7¢ spread and astronomical 3753.9% implied yield on the Yes side suggest minimal market depth rather than genuine conviction about Leasure's odds. With 233 days until expiry and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with minimal trading activity rather than an efficiently-priced market.

Resolution rules

If Jordan Leasure wins the Pro Baseball American League Reliever of the Year in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3753.9%

IY (No) 6.5%

Adj IY 1877%

CRI 24

Overround 0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3753.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1877%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:24:19 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 6:23:30 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBALRELOTY-26-JLEA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →