Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of April?

The 86¢ price reflects an 86% probability that META closes above $600 by April 30, 2026, but the market shows critical warning signs: zero 24-hour volume despite $972.787 open interest, a wide 14¢ spread, and an extreme 19,436% implied yield on the "No" side suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing. With only 12 days to expiration and a modest 2¢ price decline over seven days, the neutral regime and moderate Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicate the market is stable but potentially overpriced given the lack of recent trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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