Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

The 84¢ price reflects high confidence that 20+ ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on at least one day by April 30, 2026, with the market showing strong upward momentum (74¢ to 86¢ over 7 days) and healthy volume of $46.4K. The extreme No-side implied yield of 18,726% signals severe tail risk pricing, suggesting the market is heavily skewed toward Yes despite the 12-day window remaining. With 512% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this market exhibits significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics—likely driven by dependency on IMF Portwatch data publication and the binary nature of hitting a 20-ship threshold on any single day.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Indicators

Regime

Trade