Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 10% probability of a 25bps rate cut by June 2026, but the extreme implied yield of 6190% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity constraints on a thin $274k open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 10% probability of a 25bps rate cut by June 2026, but the extreme implied yield of 6190% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity constraints on a thin $274k open interest. With 60 days to expiration and a tight 1¢ spread, the market shows minimal recent price movement (holding at 9¢ for seven days) despite a high realized volatility of 1277%, suggesting the current price may be sticky due to low liquidity rather than genuine conviction. The 0.5/h information arrival rate and neutral regime indicate this contract lacks catalyst momentum, making it a potential value play if macro conditions shift toward recession expectations that would justify Fed cuts.
Resolution rules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-C25 yes 100