Will Tino Livramento be in the England World Cup final squad?

60¢mid

Bid/Ask 55/65¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jun 18, 2026·60d remaining

KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-TLIV

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 6¢ spread. The astronomical implied yields (490.9% for Yes, 733.3% for No) reflect the pricing dysfunction rather than genuine market conviction, and the Cliff Risk Index of 1 signals potential resolution complications. With 61 days to the June 2026 close and no trading activity, this appears to be a dead market that may not attract sufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful consensus on Livramento's World Cup squad inclusion.

Resolution rules

If Tino Livramento is selected for the final squad for the England national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.5%

IY (No) 744.7%

Adj IY 305%

CRI 1

Overround 24.1%

LAS 0.18

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	744.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	305%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	24.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.18	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:26:04 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 6:23:30 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-TLIV yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →