Will US personal income MoM for March 2026 be above -0.2%?

92¢mid

Bid/Ask 87/97¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·11d remaining

KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T-0.2

7-day price6 snapshots · 4 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) despite an 80-basis-point price rally over seven days (80¢ to 87¢), suggesting the contract may be illiquid or abandoned. The 0¢ current price contradicts the recent upward momentum and implies an absurdly high 498.4% yield on the Yes side, indicating severe mispricing or a broken market mechanism. With only 11 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 7, this appears to be a dead market that traders should avoid until liquidity returns.

Resolution rules

If US personal income MoM for March 2026 is above -0.2, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 500.9%

IY (No) 22432.7%

Adj IY 9928%

CRI 7

Overround 5.0%

LAS 0.11

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	500.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	22432.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9928%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	5.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.11	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 4:45:35 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 4:38:14 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSPINCOME-26APR30-T-0.2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →