Will Max Diaz be the Democratic nominee for SC-01
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6
2 contracts
Top contract
67¢
$6 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01?: Nancy Lacore
KXSC01D-26-NLAC
Cluster 2
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01?: Mac Deford
KXSC01D-26-MDEF
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that Max Diaz becomes the Democratic nominee for South Carolina's 1st congressional district. At 32%, Diaz is positioned as a secondary contender behind Nancy Lacore, who is trading at 78% and appears to be the frontrunner. The relatively modest probability for Diaz reflects either lower name recognition, fewer endorsements, or less funding compared to leading candidates. Key factors affecting this probability include candidate fundraising totals, endorsements from party officials, polling data in the district, and voter registration trends. The primary catalyst for resolution will be the Democratic primary election itself, typically held in March during election years. Between now and then, performance in any early straw polls, organizational capacity demonstrated through field staff hiring, and media coverage of the race would likely move this probability in either direction.
- ›Nancy Lacore's 78% probability suggests she maintains significant structural advantages; any erosion of her support would directly increase Diaz's probability
- ›Fundraising and cash-on-hand reports filed with the FEC provide quantifiable measures of campaign viability that markets typically respond to
- ›Mac Deford at 23% represents a third-place candidate; consolidation of support behind one of the top two would likely shift this probability downward
- ›The primary election date and any scheduled debates or forums offer concrete moments where relative candidate performance becomes measurable
- ›Voter turnout models and demographic shifts in SC-01 between now and primary day affect which candidate's coalition has structural advantages
What moved the line
- Jun 9Mac Deford↓11pp25→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 11Nancy Lacore↓9pp77→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Mac Deford↓9pp14→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Nancy Lacore↓3pp68→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Nancy Lacore↑3pp65→68¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (37% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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