Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 95% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
95%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+3pp
33h ago
24h volume
$16K
1 contracts
Top contract
95¢
$16K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?
0x26b0db…c1a7
Analysis
This market estimates a 92% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 before hitting $90,000, given current price levels and market conditions. The high probability reflects Bitcoin's historical volatility patterns and the mathematical likelihood that a move to $70k represents a smaller percentage gain than reaching $90k from similar starting points. Market participants are pricing in expectations about near-term Bitcoin momentum, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions that would influence which level is breached first. The resolution depends entirely on Bitcoin's actual price path over coming weeks or months—there is no single catalyst, as both thresholds could theoretically be reached through gradual appreciation or sudden moves. Key factors include current Bitcoin price, recent trading range, options market implied volatility, major economic data releases affecting risk assets, and any significant regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency markets.
- ›Current Bitcoin price relative to $70k threshold determines how many percentage points Bitcoin needs to move to reach each level
- ›Historical Bitcoin volatility patterns and average daily/weekly price swings affect probability that smaller moves occur before larger ones
- ›Options market implied volatility indicates trader expectations about price movement magnitude and timing
- ›Regulatory or macroeconomic news affecting cryptocurrency markets can shift probability by altering expected price direction
- ›24-hour and longer-term trading volume patterns suggest current market liquidity and conviction behind price movements
What moved the line
- Jun 1Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?↑6pp84→90¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?↑4pp90→94¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.