Will the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index on Jun 1, 2026 be above 1065
Leader sits at 4% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1005
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Above 1030
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index on Jun 5, 2026 be above 10
Will the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index on Jun 5, 2026 be above 1005?: Above 1005
KXTRUFBPPI-26JUN05-T1005
Will the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index on Jun 5, 2026 be above 1055?: Above 1055
KXTRUFBPPI-26JUN05-T1055
Will the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index on Jun 5, 2026 be above 1030?: Above 1030
KXTRUFBPPI-26JUN05-T1030
Analysis
This contracts series tracks whether Bitcoin's purchasing power relative to inflation reaches specific price thresholds on June 1, 2026. The 3% probability on the 1065 level suggests market participants expect Bitcoin's purchasing power to remain below this mark. Bitcoin purchasing power metrics are driven by two primary forces: Bitcoin's price movements relative to dollar-denominated inflation indices, and how Truflation itself measures and weights inflation components. The current low probability reflects either expectations of moderate Bitcoin performance relative to inflation measures, or limited historical precedent for reaching these levels. Resolution depends entirely on the Truflation index value released or recorded on the resolution date. Key drivers include Bitcoin price volatility between now and June 2026, whether traditional inflation rates rise or fall, how Truflation adjusts its methodology, and market sentiment regarding cryptocurrency as an inflation hedge.
- ›Bitcoin's USD price trajectory over the next months, given this index measures Bitcoin purchasing power in inflation-adjusted terms
- ›Truflation's index calculation methodology and any announced changes to how it weights goods, services, or alternative assets in its inflation measure
- ›Historical baseline: what the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index has registered in prior periods (if available), providing context for whether 1065+ represents a significant move or normal range
- ›The relationship between general inflation rates and Bitcoin price appreciation—if inflation accelerates while Bitcoin remains flat, the purchasing power index could decline
- ›Market sentiment and adoption trends around Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, which would influence price direction relative to the measured inflation baseline
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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