Who will advance from the California Lieutenant Governor primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$0 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will advance from the California Lieutenant Governor primary
Who will advance from the California Lieutenant Governor primary?: Janelle Kellman
0xf072ab…8ce2
Analysis
This 9% probability indicates that Janelle Kellman has a roughly 1-in-11 chance of advancing from the California Lieutenant Governor primary. The current estimate reflects market assessment of her position among multiple candidates competing for the two spots that advance to the general election. Key factors shaping this probability include the candidate's current polling standing relative to frontrunners, fundraising totals compared to competitors, and endorsement patterns. The June 2026 primary election will ultimately determine which candidates secure enough votes to advance. Until then, any significant shifts in campaign momentum, poll movements, or candidate entry/exits could materially impact expectations around individual candidate advancement chances.
- ›Current polling position relative to the leading California Lieutenant Governor candidates and proximity to the top-two threshold
- ›Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared candidates in the race
- ›Endorsements from established Democratic Party figures, labor unions, or other influential organizations
- ›Voter name recognition and turnout patterns in California primary elections among the likely electorate
- ›Any candidate entry, exit, or major strategic shift by frontrunners that could reshape the competitive landscape
What moved the line
- Jun 9Janelle Kellman↓5pp8→3¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10Janelle Kellman↓3pp3→0¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winnerlast 97% · 0d
- CA-07 Primary Winnerslast 77% · 0d
- ME-02 Republican Primary Winnerlast 96% · 0d
- CA-40 Primary Winnerslast 73% · 0d
- CA-45 Primary Winnerslast 64% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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