Will Clair Obscur win the Misa Esports vs. Clair Obscur CS2 match
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$325
16 contracts
Closes
Jun 22, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will Misa Esports win” vs “Will RUSTEC win the RUSTEC vs. Ursa CS2 match”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Misa Esports win
Cluster 2
Will RUSTEC win the RUSTEC vs. Ursa CS2 match
Will RUSTEC win the RUSTEC vs. Ursa CS2 match?: RUSTEC
KXCS2GAME-26JUN081000RUSTURSA-RUST
Cluster 3
Will Ursa win the RUSTEC vs. Ursa CS2 match
Will Ursa win the RUSTEC vs. Ursa CS2 match?: Ursa
KXCS2GAME-26JUN081000RUSTURSA-URSA
Cluster 4
Will RoundsGG win the OLDBOYS- vs. RoundsGG CS2 match
Will RoundsGG win the OLDBOYS- vs. RoundsGG CS2 match?: RoundsGG
KXCS2GAME-26JUN081330OLDRGG-RGG
Cluster 5
Will ex-RUBY win the ex-RUBY vs. Acend CS2 match
Will ex-RUBY win the ex-RUBY vs. Acend CS2 match?: ex-RUBY
KXCS2GAME-26JUN081300EXRACE-EXR
Cluster 6
Will Clutchain win the Clutchain vs. XI Esport CS2 match
Will Clutchain win the Clutchain vs. XI Esport CS2 match?: Clutchain
KXCS2GAME-26JUN081330CLUXI-CLU
Cluster 7
Will Acend win the ex-RUBY vs. Acend CS2 match
Will Acend win the ex-RUBY vs. Acend CS2 match?: Acend
KXCS2GAME-26JUN081300EXRACE-ACE
Cluster 8
Will OLDBOYS- win the OLDBOYS- vs. RoundsGG CS2 match
Will OLDBOYS- win the OLDBOYS- vs. RoundsGG CS2 match?: OLDBOYS-
KXCS2GAME-26JUN081330OLDRGG-OLD
Cluster 9
Will Donstu Esports win the Banger Gang vs. Donstu Esports CS2 match
Will Donstu Esports win the Banger Gang vs. Donstu Esports CS2 match?: Donstu Esports
KXCS2GAME-26JUN081330BGDON-DON
Cluster 10
Will eternal premium win the eternal premium vs. Misa Esports CS2 match
Cluster 11
Will CYBERSHOKE Esports win the CYBERSHOKE Esports vs. Nuclear TigeRES CS2 match
Cluster 12
Will Nuclear TigeRES win the CYBERSHOKE Esports vs. Nuclear TigeRES CS2 match
Cluster 13
Will Banger Gang win the Banger Gang vs. Donstu Esports CS2 match
Will Banger Gang win the Banger Gang vs. Donstu Esports CS2 match?: Banger Gang
KXCS2GAME-26JUN081330BGDON-BG
Cluster 14
Will XI Esport win the Clutchain vs. XI Esport CS2 match
Will XI Esport win the Clutchain vs. XI Esport CS2 match?: XI Esport
KXCS2GAME-26JUN081330CLUXI-XI
Cluster 15
Will Lavked win the Misa Esports vs. Lavked CS2 match
Will Lavked win the Misa Esports vs. Lavked CS2 match?: Lavked
KXCS2GAME-26JUN090630MISLAV-LAV
What moved the line
- Jun 7Clutchain↑27pp34→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7RoundsGG↑21pp14→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7OLDBOYS-↓15pp49→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Donstu Esports↑12pp44→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Ursa↑8pp43→51¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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