How many Federal Reserve posts on X the week ending on Jun 4, 2026
Leader sits at 65% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
>17
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
15-17
Spread
43pp
contested
24h volume
$728
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Federal Reserve posts on X the week ending on Jun 4, 2026
Analysis
This contract measures the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will publish between 12 and 14 posts on X (formerly Twitter) during the week of May 26 to June 4, 2026. At 9%, the current odds suggest traders believe this outcome is unlikely compared to alternatives. The Federal Reserve's social media activity can vary based on policy announcements, economic data releases, and regular communication schedules. The primary driver of this probability is the Fed's pre-established communication calendar during this period. If significant economic data is released or policy decisions occur, posting volume may increase. If the week is relatively quiet on the policy front, posts may fall below or exceed the 12-14 range. The single biggest factor determining the final outcome is whether a Federal Open Market Committee meeting or major economic announcement occurs during this specific week, which would directly influence official communication volume.
- ›Historical baseline: Average Federal Reserve X posting frequency over recent comparable weeks (roughly 8-12 posts per week) establishes a reference for the 12-14 range probability
- ›Scheduled events: Presence of FOMC meetings, economic data releases, or policy announcements during May 26-June 4 would predictably increase posting activity
- ›Communication policy shifts: Any changes to Fed communication strategy or social media protocols introduced before June 4 would alter expected posting volume
- ›Competing contract prices: The 9-11 range (7¢) and 15-17 range (7¢) both trading higher suggests markets see 12-14 as a less-likely middle ground
- ›No recent volume: Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts indicates low market confidence or consensus in current pricing
What moved the line
- Jun 4>17↑54pp11→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 315-17↑12pp11→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3>17↑7pp4→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (65% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.