Will AAK win the 2026 Kosovan parliamentary election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$58
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 7, 2027
354 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will LVV win the 2026 Kosovan parliamentary election
Will LVV win the 2026 Kosovan parliamentary election?: LVV
KXKOSOVOPARLI-26JUN07-LVV
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that the Democratic Party of Kosovo (LVV) is heavily favored to win the most seats in Kosovo's 2026 parliamentary election, with AAK estimated at just 22% chance. The LVV contract trading at 69¢ dominates the market, suggesting consensus that they remain the frontrunner despite recent political dynamics. AAK's relatively low probability likely reflects both LVV's polling strength and fragmentation among opposition parties. The market will clarify significantly once official results are announced following Kosovo's parliamentary election, expected in June 2026. Changes would depend on pre-election polling trends, coalition dynamics, voter turnout patterns, and any major political events affecting party positioning in the weeks leading to the vote.
- ›LVV currently priced at 69¢ implies market expects them to win a plurality, reducing AAK's path to victory
- ›AAK's 22% probability reflects third-place positioning among tracked parties; PDK and LDK combined trade at only 11¢, suggesting fragmented opposition
- ›Kosovo parliamentary elections occur with proportional representation, meaning AAK would need substantial vote share to win most seats rather than just plurality rules
- ›Trading volume on AAK contract ($12 24h) is lowest among tracked parties, indicating limited market confidence and potentially less refined pricing
- ›Election date in June 2026 represents near-term resolution; current probabilities may shift significantly based on final pre-election polling in May-June
Recently closed in election 2026
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 0d
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 0d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 0d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.