Insurrection Act invoked by...
Leader sits at 23% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
June 30
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Insurrection Act invoked by
Analysis
This market estimates a 23% chance that the Insurrection Act will be invoked by June 30, 2026. The Insurrection Act grants the president authority to deploy armed forces domestically during emergencies. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether conditions (such as civil unrest, major security threats, or constitutional crises) would compel executive action. Related contracts on military deployments and domestic emergency powers suggest traders are pricing in heightened geopolitical and domestic tensions. The resolution date of June 30 means the market resolves in the next four weeks, making current events and policy announcements the primary drivers of price movement. A major domestic security incident or significant escalation in civil disorder would likely increase the probability; conversely, stable conditions or explicit statements ruling out such measures would pressure it downward.
- ›Current U.S. domestic security conditions and any active civil unrest or emergency declarations between now and June 30, 2026
- ›Presidential statements, policy announcements, or legislative actions regarding emergency powers in the next four weeks
- ›Historical precedent: the Insurrection Act has been invoked rarely (most recently during 1992 Los Angeles riots and 2020 George Floyd protests), suggesting high threshold for invocation
- ›Correlation with other geopolitical markets: the 37¢ probability on Cuba military action and elevated emergency-powers contracts suggest trader concern about broader instability
- ›Specific triggering events (major terrorist attacks, large-scale riots, natural disasters, or constitutional crises) that would meet the legal and political threshold for invocation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (23% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.