IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 55% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
55%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1.5M
1 contracts
Top contract
55¢
$1.5M · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran
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Analysis
This probability represents the market's current assessment that Iran will prevail over New Zealand in an upcoming matchup. The 52% level suggests traders view this as a competitive contest with Iran holding a slight edge. Key drivers of this probability include the relative strength and recent form of each team, home-field advantage if applicable, and any roster or injury changes. The resolution will depend on the match outcome itself, which represents the primary catalyst that will settle this uncertainty. Current market depth shows moderate trading activity at this price level, reflecting genuine interest but not overwhelming confidence in either direction.
- ›The current odds place Iran as a marginal favorite at 52%, indicating traders assess this as nearly even competition rather than a decisive mismatch
- ›Recent head-to-head records and performance metrics between Iran and New Zealand in the relevant sport determine baseline expectations for the matchup
- ›Home-field advantage, if applicable, historically influences outcomes and would be priced into probability shifts
- ›Roster composition, key player availability, and recent form changes can shift probabilities significantly as match date approaches
- ›The $23,363 in 24-hour volume indicates moderate market liquidity, suggesting the 52% price reflects genuine competitive uncertainty rather than extreme confidence
What moved the line
- Jun 16IR Iran↓16pp54→38¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
- IR Iran vs. New Zealandlast 55% · 0d
- Will Iran Play in the World Cuplast 97% · 0d
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 27% · 1d
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027last 96% · 1d
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30last 83% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (55% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
US-Iran Peace Deal Probabilities Surge Across Timelines
Polymarket markets for a permanent US-Iran peace deal saw dramatic price increases across multiple deadlines, with the June 15th contract surging 61¢ to 84¢. This coordinated re-rating suggests a significant geopolitical catalyst or a shift in expert consensus on the likelihood of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough.
Iran Nuclear Deal Probability Surges 21 Points
The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 jumped to 67¢, up from 46¢ yesterday, as diplomatic signals intensify. Related peace deals and Hormuz blockade markets also moved sharply.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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