Iran Nuclear Deal Probability Surges 21 Points
The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 jumped to 67¢, up from 46¢ yesterday, as diplomatic signals intensify. Related peace deals and Hormuz blockade markets also moved sharply.
Key takeaways
- 01
The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 jumped to 67¢, up from 46¢ yesterday, as diplomatic signals intensify.
- 02
Related peace deals and Hormuz blockade markets also moved sharply.
- 03
Today saw the most significant movement in Iran-related prediction markets in weeks.
Full analysis
Today saw the most significant movement in Iran-related prediction markets in weeks. The contract 'US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?' on Polymarket surged 21¢ to 67¢, with 683,350 volume. This was accompanied by a 7¢ rise in the US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 contract (now at 50¢, volume 1.75M) and a 13¢ jump in Trump's announcement of Hormuz blockade lifted by June 15 (now 38¢). The Strait of Hormuz normalization contract for end of June rose 5¢ to 23¢ on high volume of 809,005. These moves are likely driven by reports of back-channel negotiations and increased diplomatic activity. For traders, the key contracts to watch are the nuclear deal (0x a70fc3...) and the June 15 peace deal (0x d86a81...), both with tight 1¢ spreads. The cascade of moves across multiple Iran-related markets suggests a coordinated repricing of geopolitical risk. Traders should monitor for official statements and consider using conditional orders on Kalshi's KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT series.
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sf query "iran nuclear deal" && sf book 0xa70fc3695a65833b91