Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place
Leader sits at 76% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2nd place: Abelardo de la Espriella
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
2nd place: Iván Cepeda Castr
Spread
53pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
May 31, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place: Sergio Fajardo
0x214e38…f0b9
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place: Paloma Valencia
0xda907b…e77d
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place: Abelardo de la Espriella
0x4e7ab1…6d94
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place: Iván Cepeda Castro
0xd5316f…81a6
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that Abelardo de la Espriella finishes in second place in Colombia's 2026 presidential first round. At 68%, traders view him as a strong contender for the runner-up position, with Iván Cepeda Castro as the nearest alternative at 29%. The pricing reflects recent polling trends, Espriella's standing within his political faction, and broader dynamics of vote consolidation among center-right and moderate candidates. The key uncertainty involves how fragmented the field remains and whether regional voting patterns shift support toward competing candidates. The first-round vote itself will resolve all outcome contracts, making actual election day the critical catalyst for determining final standings and eliminating current uncertainty about candidate positioning.
- ›Recent Colombian polling data showing Espriella's relative standing among non-frontrunner candidates in the presidential race
- ›Fragmentation across moderate and center-right voter segments and whether consolidation occurs before election day
- ›Historical patterns of second-place finishes in Colombian presidential first rounds and typical vote distributions
- ›Espriella's organizational capacity and campaign resources compared to Cepeda Castro and other listed competitors
- ›The date of the first-round presidential election itself, which will provide definitive resolution of candidate rankings
What moved the line
- Jun 12nd place: Abelardo de la Espriella↓68pp69→1¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12nd place: Iván Cepeda Castro↑67pp31→98¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12nd place: Paloma Valencia↓5pp5→0¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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