Montedio Yamagata vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: SC Sagamihara (-1.5)
Leader sits at 12% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
SC Sagamihara (-1.5)
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
SC Sagamihara (-2.5)
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Montedio Yamagata vs. SC Sagamihara - More Markets: SC Sagamihara
Analysis
This market estimates a 34% probability that SC Sagamihara will win their upcoming match against Montedio Yamagata by 1.5 or more goals. The closely-clustered contract prices (34¢ and 33¢) suggest uncertainty between SC Sagamihara winning by the specified margin versus other outcomes—either a narrower Sagamihara victory, a draw, or a Montedio win. The probability will be resolved when the match concludes. Key factors influencing this estimate include each team's recent form in the J2 League, head-to-head historical matchup data, current league standings and goal differential, and any lineup changes or injuries affecting either squad. The low recent trading volume ($0 over 24 hours) indicates limited market activity, which may reduce confidence in the price accuracy.
- ›SC Sagamihara's current win rate and average goals scored per match this season versus Montedio Yamagata's defensive record
- ›Montedio Yamagata's recent form and whether they are trending toward or away from goal-scoring streaks
- ›Historical head-to-head records between these two J2 League teams, if available, and typical margin of victory when SC Sagamihara wins
- ›Any confirmed absences, injuries, or roster changes for either team in the days leading up to the match
- ›Home/away venue designation and whether either team has a significant home-field advantage affecting goal-scoring patterns
What moved the line
- May 7SC Sagamihara (-2.5)↓4pp31→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (12% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.