Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor
Leader sits at 56% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Keith Sonderling
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Riley Moore
Spread
33pp
contested
24h volume
$755
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
943 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?: Riley Moore
KXNEXTLABORSEC-29-RMOO
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?: Patrick Pizzella
KXNEXTLABORSEC-29-PPIZ
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?: Keith Sonderling
KXNEXTLABORSEC-29-KSON
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?: Andrew Puzder
KXNEXTLABORSEC-29-APUZ
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a specific individual will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor, currently priced at 38%. The outcome depends on Trump's nomination decisions and Senate confirmation, with the identity of the leading candidate and any competing candidates materially affecting the probability. The market is concentrated around one frontrunner, while the runner-up sits at just 5%, indicating significant consensus. The main drivers would be changes in Trump's stated preferences, withdrawal of candidates, or shifting political dynamics that alter confirmation prospects. The resolution will occur when Trump makes an official nomination announcement and the Senate votes on confirmation, likely occurring in the coming months depending on personnel timelines and legislative schedules.
- ›The leading contract holds approximately 7.6x the probability of the runner-up contract (38% vs 5%), suggesting strong market consensus around one candidate rather than uncertainty distributed across multiple contenders
- ›Trading volume on the Attorney General contracts ($16k-$4k daily) substantially exceeds Secretary of Labor volume, indicating less market liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads affecting price accuracy
- ›No specific announcement date or nomination timeline is publicly confirmed, leaving the exact resolution timeframe uncertain and potentially extending over several months
- ›The multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means the 38% reflects the combined likelihood that this specific individual both receives nomination and passes Senate confirmation
- ›Market prices reflect December 2024-May 2026 information; any statements Trump has made about labor policy preferences or personnel considerations would directly impact probability movement
What moved the line
- Jun 17Keith Sonderling↑3pp50→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Keith Sonderling↑3pp53→56¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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