Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State
Leader sits at 53% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
No other person
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
Ric Grenell
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
987 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?: Bill Hagerty
KXNEXTSTATE-29-BHAG
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?: No other person
KXNEXTSTATE-29-NONE
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?: Robert O'Brien
KXNEXTSTATE-29-ROBR
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State?: Ric Grenell
KXNEXTSTATE-29-RGRE
Analysis
The 53% probability indicates that markets currently assess it as more likely than not that Trump's next Secretary of State will be someone other than the four primary candidates represented in the contract set. The market reflects uncertainty about whether Trump will select from a known group of contenders or choose someone outside this predetermined pool. Key drivers of this probability include the lack of clear public signals about Trump's preference, the relatively low trading volumes suggesting moderate participant confidence, and the spread of remaining probability across competing candidates. The main resolution catalyst would be Trump's official announcement of his cabinet appointment, which typically occurs in the transition period following a confirmed election result.
- ›The leading contract (KXNEXTSTATE-29-NONE at 53%) trades substantially higher than any individual named candidate, suggesting material uncertainty about whether the Secretary of State will come from the identified pool
- ›Trading volume remains modest ($16K-$24K across top contracts in 24 hours), indicating this market has not attracted consensus opinion or heavy institutional participation
- ›Related cabinet positions show clearer frontrunners—the Attorney General market concentrates 64% on Todd Blanche—suggesting the Secretary of State selection is either genuinely more contested or less publicly telegraphed
- ›The contract structure as a four-outcome winner-take-all creates mechanical pressure toward 'none of the above' if no single named candidate achieves clear preference clarity
- ›Cabinet announcement timing depends on electoral confirmation status and transition logistics, introducing timing uncertainty that could extend resolution well beyond initial expectations
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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