ME-02 Republican Primary Winner
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Paul LePage
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
James Clark
Spread
93pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$220
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
ME-02 Republican Primary Winner
Analysis
This 93% probability indicates that prediction-market participants view one particular candidate as heavily favored to win the ME-02 Republican primary. The high concentration reflects either a dominant frontrunner in polling and endorsements, or a field where one candidate has substantially outpaced competitors in fundraising and organizational capacity. Movement in this probability would likely follow shifts in public polling, major endorsements, or campaign developments. The primary election itself represents the key resolution event—voters' actual choices will determine the outcome. Contract volume and price consistency across markets suggest moderate but not exceptional interest in this specific race.
- ›The leading candidate maintains a 89-percentage-point spread over the runner-up (93% vs 4%), indicating markets perceive a substantial structural advantage rather than a close contest
- ›Similar Maine GOP primary races show varying market certainty levels, suggesting factors specific to ME-02 (candidate profile, district composition, opponent quality) are driving the high probability rather than a systematic pattern
- ›The 24-hour contract volume of approximately $23,457 on related races provides moderate liquidity but is lower than high-profile national races, indicating specialized rather than mainstream market participation
- ›Resolution depends entirely on the official primary election result, with no intermediate milestones or polling releases that would necessarily shift probabilities before ballots are cast
- ›The current 93% pricing implies roughly 7-in-100 odds of the runner-up or other candidate winning, a scenario that would require significant unexpected developments
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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