OK-01 Republican Primary Winner
Leader sits at 71% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jackson Lahmeyer
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Mark Tedford
Spread
48pp
contested
24h volume
$202
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
18 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
OK-01 Republican Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Jackson Lahmeyer will win the Oklahoma 1st Congressional District Republican primary. At 60%, the market views him as the frontrunner but not a heavy favorite, indicating meaningful uncertainty about the nomination outcome. The primary outcome will depend on candidate endorsements, campaign spending, local voter preferences, and turnout patterns in this solidly Republican district. Early voting and election day results will ultimately resolve this market when the primary occurs, likely determining whether Lahmeyer maintains his lead or faces a late challenge from Mark Tedford (currently at 38%) or other candidates. Trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited sustained interest in this particular race among market participants.
- ›Jackson Lahmeyer holds a 22-point market lead over Mark Tedford, but combined non-Lahmeyer contracts represent 40% of the market, indicating no consensus around the alternative candidates
- ›Daily trading volume is minimal ($6 on the leading contract), reflecting low liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads that limit reliable price signals
- ›Mark Tedford at 38% represents the only viable challenger with material market backing, making the race functionally a two-candidate competition despite multiple candidates on the ballot
- ›The primary date and early voting calendar will be key drivers of price movement, with campaign events and endorsements likely to shift probabilities in the weeks before voting begins
- ›Oklahoma's 1st district is heavily Republican-leaning, making the GOP primary outcome the near-certain predictor of the general election winner
What moved the line
- May 28Mark Tedford↓8pp29→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 21Mark Tedford↑6pp33→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Jackson Lahmeyer↑6pp65→71¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Mark Tedford↓5pp34→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Mark Tedford↓4pp38→34¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- TX-19 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- Texas Republican Senate Primary Winnerlast 96% · 1d
- Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winnerlast 67% · 1d
- TX-38 Republican Primary Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (71% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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