Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 76% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$100M
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
73¢
$100M
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0xe67c94…9b7f
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0xa0192d…8989
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $5B
0xc20be6…06a8
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x77a401…97d1
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $2B
0xb8a883…b2a3
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $3B
0xa75027…ca25
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0xe98dce…c953
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0x9027a1…7800
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that Opensea's fully diluted valuation will exceed $500 million within one day of its public launch. At 71%, markets are pricing in better-than-even odds the platform achieves this valuation threshold immediately upon debut. The probability reflects expectations about initial investor demand and market enthusiasm for the launch, balanced against uncertainty about the company's actual trading performance and user adoption velocity. Resolution depends on the official FDV figure announced or calculated at launch. Comparable cryptocurrency and Web3 platform launches show wide variance in initial valuations, creating meaningful disagreement even among traders—the runner-up contract sits at 70%, indicating tight market consensus with limited conviction either direction.
- ›Historical precedent from major crypto platform launches (FTX, Coinbase, Blur) shows first-day valuations range from $100M to $20B, creating wide reference points for Opensea expectations
- ›Current trading volume concentration ($5,580 in 24h vol on the $500M contract) is modest relative to contract liquidity, suggesting limited price discovery and potential for volatility upon new information
- ›The 72-point probability gap between $50M (94¢, quasi-certain) and $800M (17¢, unlikely) indicates market confidence in exceeding $100M but substantial doubt about reaching $1B on day one
- ›Opensea's existing market position and user base provide concrete data about current adoption, but launch-day valuation depends on pricing model decisions by underwriters or founders that remain undisclosed
- ›The proximity of multiple contracts at 70-71% probability suggests the $500M-$800M range represents genuine market inflection point where conviction transitions from favorable to skeptical
What moved the line
- May 6$100M↑12pp70→82¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$100M↓9pp82→73¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$500M↑6pp45→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$300M↑3pp57→60¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$300M↑3pp60→63¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.