Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
17%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
873 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance
Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance
0x7ad403…c422
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that J.D. Vance, the current Vice President, will win the 2028 presidential election at 21 cents. The market appears to distinguish between Vance's chances of winning the general election versus his likelihood of securing the Republican nomination (priced at 39 cents), suggesting traders view his path to the presidency as narrower than his path to becoming the party's nominee. Key drivers of this probability include his standing within the Republican Party, potential primary competition, and general election dynamics. The actual 2028 general election on November 5th will ultimately resolve this contract, though major political events, candidate announcements, or significant shifts in approval ratings between now and then could materially move the market's assessment of his viability.
- ›Vance's Republican nomination probability (39¢) significantly exceeds his general election probability (21¢), indicating market skepticism about his general election competitiveness relative to securing the nomination
- ›Donald Trump's general election probability is priced at 3¢, substantially lower than Vance's, suggesting markets view Vance as potentially more viable in a general election matchup despite Trump's prior presidency
- ›The Republican nominee contract will resolve before the general election contract, providing intermediate data on whether Vance actually becomes the party's nominee—a prerequisite for his 21¢ general election probability
- ›Relative to other Democratic and Republican candidates priced on the market, Vance ranks among the top five candidates but trails multiple competitors, indicating distributed rather than concentrated expectations
- ›Historical incumbent party performance and approval ratings through 2027-2028 will influence whether voters prefer continuity via the sitting VP or seek change through opposition candidates
Recently closed in election 2026
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 1d
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 1d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 1d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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