Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...
Leader sits at 92% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
September 30, 2026
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
196 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by
Analysis
The 77% probability indicates traders believe Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026, though the much lower prices for June and May deadlines (10-27%) suggest most gains would occur later in the year. The probability reflects Russia's recent territorial advances in the Donbas region, balanced against Ukrainian defensive capabilities and the logistics required to seize a city of Kostyantynivka's size and complexity. The main drivers are Russia's current pace of advance, availability of reinforcements, and Ukrainian ability to reinforce or counter-attack. The critical uncertainty centers on military momentum through mid-2026—any sustained Ukrainian counteroffensive or major shift in Western military aid would substantially shift expectations. Resolution depends on ground control verifiable by late December 2026, making seasonal conditions and battlefield developments over the next 7-8 months the key unknowns.
- ›Russia's current territorial control and proximity to Kostyantynivka, including distance from active front lines as of May 2026
- ›Ukrainian defensive capability and counteroffensive potential, measured by recent military operations and force composition in the sector
- ›The sharp probability drop from December 31 (77%) to June 30 (27%) indicates traders expect meaningful uncertainty rather than imminent capture
- ›Third-party military aid commitments to Ukraine and their delivery timeline, which directly affect defensive capacity
- ›Seasonal factors and attrition rates that historically affect ground operations in the region during late 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 14June 30, 2026↓11pp40→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12June 30, 2026↑6pp29→35¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15June 30, 2026↑6pp29→35¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13June 30, 2026↑5pp35→40¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13September 30, 2026↑5pp78→83¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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