Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?: June 30
0x3523a6…7576
Analysis
This contract estimates a 6% probability that Russian forces will capture Havrylivka by a specified date. The low probability reflects the town's current distance from active front lines and the pace of Russian territorial advances in the region. Market participants appear to be pricing in modest Russian progress but significant Ukrainian resistance and logistical constraints. The assessment could shift based on changes in front-line momentum, particularly around nearby Kostyantynivka where separate contracts show higher probabilities for later deadlines, suggesting traders expect slower-than-near-term advancement. Real-time developments in Donbas combat operations and any major changes in military supply or personnel would materially affect expectations for Havrylivka's capture timeline.
- ›Current distance and terrain between Russian-held territory and Havrylivka relative to recent monthly advance rates
- ›Status of Ukrainian defensive positions and available reserves in the sector
- ›Russian logistical capacity and whether offensive operations are concentrating on nearby Kostyantynivka instead
- ›Contract expiration date specificity—shorter deadlines show much lower probabilities (5-10%) while December 2026 contracts for nearby Kostyantynivka show 77%, indicating timeline matters significantly
- ›Comparison to related contracts suggests Havrylivka is considered lower priority or higher difficulty than Kostyantynivka capture
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Russia Advancing on Donbas — Kostyantynivka Capture by June at 62%
Prediction markets price Kostyantynivka capture by June 2026 at 62%, reflecting expectations of sustained Russian Donbas momentum and minimal ceasefire prospects through 2026.
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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