How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$400
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
146 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General
How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General?: Above 51
KXBLANCHECOUNT-27-T51
Analysis
This probability reflects market assessments of whether an Attorney General nominee will secure confirmation from at least 50 of 100 Senators. The 21% likelihood suggests markets currently view confirmation above this threshold as unlikely but plausible. The price varies slightly across vote thresholds—confirmation above 49 votes trades near the headline while higher thresholds (51-53 votes) trade lower, indicating tighter margins are seen as less probable. Key drivers include the current Senate composition, party affiliation of the nominee, committee hearing outcomes, and any emerging controversies. Confirmation votes typically occur weeks after nomination announcement and committee review, serving as the primary event that resolves this market. The gap between the lower thresholds (49-50 votes at 29¢) and higher ones (53 votes at 7¢) suggests markets anticipate either clear approval or denial rather than narrow passage.
- ›Current Senate composition and party distribution, which determines baseline confirmation math
- ›Public statements and voting history of swing-vote Senators on nominee's record and qualifications
- ›Committee hearing testimony and any disclosed information that could shift Senator positions during deliberation
- ›Historical confirmation rates for Attorney General nominees under similar political conditions
- ›Timing of the confirmation vote relative to other legislative priorities that might affect attendance and engagement
What moved the line
- Aug 5Above 51↓10pp25→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Above 51↓9pp34→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Above 51↑8pp26→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Above 51↓6pp11→5¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Above 51↓4pp15→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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