How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General
Leader sits at 74% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 49
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
54¢
Above 50
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General
How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General?: Above 49
KXBLANCHECOUNT-27-T49
How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General?: Above 50
KXBLANCHECOUNT-27-T50
How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General?: Above 53
KXBLANCHECOUNT-27-T53
How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General?: Above 52
KXBLANCHECOUNT-27-T52
How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General?: Above 51
KXBLANCHECOUNT-27-T51
Analysis
This probability reflects market assessments of whether an Attorney General nominee will secure confirmation from at least 50 of 100 Senators. The 21% likelihood suggests markets currently view confirmation above this threshold as unlikely but plausible. The price varies slightly across vote thresholds—confirmation above 49 votes trades near the headline while higher thresholds (51-53 votes) trade lower, indicating tighter margins are seen as less probable. Key drivers include the current Senate composition, party affiliation of the nominee, committee hearing outcomes, and any emerging controversies. Confirmation votes typically occur weeks after nomination announcement and committee review, serving as the primary event that resolves this market. The gap between the lower thresholds (49-50 votes at 29¢) and higher ones (53 votes at 7¢) suggests markets anticipate either clear approval or denial rather than narrow passage.
- ›Current Senate composition and party distribution, which determines baseline confirmation math
- ›Public statements and voting history of swing-vote Senators on nominee's record and qualifications
- ›Committee hearing testimony and any disclosed information that could shift Senator positions during deliberation
- ›Historical confirmation rates for Attorney General nominees under similar political conditions
- ›Timing of the confirmation vote relative to other legislative priorities that might affect attendance and engagement
What moved the line
- Jun 16Above 49↑21pp40→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Above 50↑15pp30→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Above 49↑10pp61→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Above 51↓8pp21→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Above 49↓7pp45→38¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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