How many Senators vote to confirm as Director of National Intelligence
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$508
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
156 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Senators vote to confirm as Director of National Intelligence
How many Senators vote to confirm as Director of National Intelligence?: Above 57
KXCLAYTONCOUNT-27-T57
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that a Director of National Intelligence nominee receives Senate confirmation votes from more than 53 senators—a simple majority plus three. DNI confirmations typically achieve bipartisan support, though the outcome depends on nominee qualifications, partisan polarization, and the overall Senate composition. The 49% level suggests near-parity between scenarios where confirmation succeeds with broad support versus scenarios requiring coalition-building across party lines or facing significant opposition. The key factors include the nominee's background and experience level, whether any major controversies emerge during hearings, and the Senate's current partisan alignment. Resolution occurs once the full Senate votes on the nomination.
- ›Nominee's prior government experience and counterintelligence background—career officials typically secure broader bipartisan backing than political appointees
- ›Partisan composition of the Senate and whether either party withholds support based on policy disagreements or ideological concerns
- ›Timing and outcome of Senate Intelligence Committee hearings—unexpected revelations or strong testimony from committee members can shift vote counts
- ›Whether opposition rallies around specific policy positions (e.g., surveillance practices, foreign policy stance) that could fracture typical confirmation coalitions
- ›Recent trend in DNI confirmation votes—historical baseline shows most nominees clear 70+ votes, suggesting confirmation is the expected outcome absent major controversy
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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