How many Senators vote to confirm as Director of National Intelligence
Leader sits at 82% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 69%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 53
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
69¢
Above 57
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Senators vote to confirm as Director of National Intelligence
How many Senators vote to confirm as Director of National Intelligence?: Above 53
KXCLAYTONCOUNT-27-T53
How many Senators vote to confirm as Director of National Intelligence?: Above 65
KXCLAYTONCOUNT-27-T65
How many Senators vote to confirm as Director of National Intelligence?: Above 60
KXCLAYTONCOUNT-27-T60
How many Senators vote to confirm as Director of National Intelligence?: Above 57
KXCLAYTONCOUNT-27-T57
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that a Director of National Intelligence nominee receives Senate confirmation votes from more than 53 senators—a simple majority plus three. DNI confirmations typically achieve bipartisan support, though the outcome depends on nominee qualifications, partisan polarization, and the overall Senate composition. The 49% level suggests near-parity between scenarios where confirmation succeeds with broad support versus scenarios requiring coalition-building across party lines or facing significant opposition. The key factors include the nominee's background and experience level, whether any major controversies emerge during hearings, and the Senate's current partisan alignment. Resolution occurs once the full Senate votes on the nomination.
- ›Nominee's prior government experience and counterintelligence background—career officials typically secure broader bipartisan backing than political appointees
- ›Partisan composition of the Senate and whether either party withholds support based on policy disagreements or ideological concerns
- ›Timing and outcome of Senate Intelligence Committee hearings—unexpected revelations or strong testimony from committee members can shift vote counts
- ›Whether opposition rallies around specific policy positions (e.g., surveillance practices, foreign policy stance) that could fracture typical confirmation coalitions
- ›Recent trend in DNI confirmation votes—historical baseline shows most nominees clear 70+ votes, suggesting confirmation is the expected outcome absent major controversy
What moved the line
- Jun 17Above 53↓36pp93→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Above 53↑33pp58→91¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 53↑25pp57→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Above 57↑23pp49→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Above 60↑10pp26→36¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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