Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$174
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
0xc4c5d3…8b81
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be removed from the Ukrainian presidency through election, constitutional process, or other means within the next 31 days. The 3% level suggests participants view this as unlikely given Zelenskyy's current political position and the absence of immediate formal mechanisms for removal. The probability would likely shift based on changes in Ukraine's security situation, significant political developments, or unexpected constitutional crises. The main uncertainty driver is whether peace negotiations or military developments could trigger rapid political changes. Ukraine's next scheduled elections are in 2029, so any transition would require extraordinary circumstances—either a constitutional mechanism or a dramatic shift in political conditions that destabilizes his government.
- ›Ukraine's presidential term expires 2029; no regular elections scheduled before July 2026 that would change the presidency
- ›Zelenskyy's current approval ratings and political coalition strength relative to historical precedent for mid-term removal
- ›Status of ongoing military operations and whether major battlefield developments could trigger political instability
- ›Existence or activation of constitutional provisions allowing for presidential impeachment or recall within the next month
- ›Activity level and public statements from opposition political figures or military leadership suggesting removal scenarios
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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