Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...
Leader sits at 38% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
June 30
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$778
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by
Analysis
This contract estimates a 12% chance that Russian forces will capture Dobropillia by a specified date. The probability reflects current frontline positions in the Donetsk region, where Russian and Ukrainian forces have been engaged in grinding positional warfare. Dobropillia sits approximately 15-20 kilometers behind the primary contact lines. The low probability suggests markets assess significant Ukrainian defensive capability or limited Russian offensive momentum in this sector. Key drivers include Russian supply lines, artillery effectiveness, and Ukrainian reinforcement capacity. Related contracts show higher probabilities for captures of nearby settlements like Novooleksandrivka (74%) by May 31, indicating market confidence in Russian advances in the broader region but less certainty about Dobropillia specifically. Resolution depends on verified military control changes, typically confirmed through geolocated evidence or official statements from either side.
- ›Russian forces would need to breach current frontline positions and advance 15-20km under Ukrainian defensive fire and potential counterattack
- ›Ukrainian military capacity to reinforce and hold defensive positions in Donetsk, including availability of troops and defensive supplies
- ›Relative intensity of Russian operations in this specific sector versus other disputed territories where markets show higher capture probabilities (Novooleksandrivka at 74%)
- ›Logistical sustainability of Russian offensive operations given demonstrated supply chain vulnerabilities in 2024-2025
- ›Timing of any potential ceasefire negotiations or operational pause that would freeze territorial lines before Dobropillia changes hands
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (38% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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