Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
45 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by...?: July 31
0x3cda63…8d93
Analysis
This contract estimates an 18% probability that Russian forces will capture Kindrashivka by a specific deadline (likely late May or early June 2026). The low probability reflects the current front-line positions and pace of Russian territorial advances in this sector of southern Ukraine. Related contracts show varied confidence levels: markets price a 74% chance Russia takes Novooleksandrivka by May 31, but only 22% for Novyi Donbas and 26% for Orikhiv by July 31. The resolution depends on Russian military operational tempo, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and logistics capabilities in the region. Military momentum, casualty rates, and equipment availability will be primary drivers of whether this low probability shifts materially before expiration.
- ›Current distance between Russian-held territory and Kindrashivka and recent weekly advance rates in this sector
- ›Status of Ukrainian defensive positions and reserve force availability near Kindrashivka
- ›Russian force concentration, equipment levels, and supply line capacity for operations in this area
- ›Comparative market pricing on nearby towns (74% for Novooleksandrivka vs 18% for Kindrashivka) indicating analyst differentiation between targets
- ›Weather and seasonal conditions affecting operational capability from early May through contract expiration
What moved the line
- Jun 12July 31↑53pp12→65¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14July 31↑19pp79→98¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13July 31↑14pp65→79¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ukraine
- Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire?last 11% · 0d
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...last 64% · 0d
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026last 3% · 0d
- Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...last 3% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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