Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
19%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
15h ago
24h volume
$15
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by...?: May 31
0x92c95e…fb5f
Analysis
This contract estimates an 18% probability that Russian forces will capture Kindrashivka by a specific deadline (likely late May or early June 2026). The low probability reflects the current front-line positions and pace of Russian territorial advances in this sector of southern Ukraine. Related contracts show varied confidence levels: markets price a 74% chance Russia takes Novooleksandrivka by May 31, but only 22% for Novyi Donbas and 26% for Orikhiv by July 31. The resolution depends on Russian military operational tempo, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and logistics capabilities in the region. Military momentum, casualty rates, and equipment availability will be primary drivers of whether this low probability shifts materially before expiration.
- ›Current distance between Russian-held territory and Kindrashivka and recent weekly advance rates in this sector
- ›Status of Ukrainian defensive positions and reserve force availability near Kindrashivka
- ›Russian force concentration, equipment levels, and supply line capacity for operations in this area
- ›Comparative market pricing on nearby towns (74% for Novooleksandrivka vs 18% for Kindrashivka) indicating analyst differentiation between targets
- ›Weather and seasonal conditions affecting operational capability from early May through contract expiration
What moved the line
- May 1May 31↓21pp49→28¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29May 31↑15pp44→59¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30May 31↓10pp59→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 2May 31↓8pp28→20¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28May 31↑6pp38→44¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (19% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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Ukraine Re-Enters Rodynske — Biggest Battlefield Move in Prediction Markets
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.